Welcome

Early stage investments in creative and well executed ventures.

The value of “strategic intuition”

Lately I’ve been thinking a lot about intuition and its immense - yet hard to quantify characteristic. Intuition, I suppose, is generally understood to be the counter point to a more analytical decision making process. This theory of the “left brain/right brain” structure and functions of the mind suggests that the two different sides of the brain control two different “modes” of thinking. It also suggests that each of us prefers one mode over the other. By now, most of us already know the personality types.

  • Left brain:
    • Logical
    • Sequential
    • Rational
    • Analytical
    • Objective
    • Looks at parts

    Right brain:

    • Random
    • Intuitive
    • Holistic
    • Synthesizing
    • Subjective
    • Looks at wholes

    In exceptional cases, the world comes to know of Steve Jobs, Larry Page, Sergey Brin and others who certainly seem left-brained in that they are uncommonly analytical but also seem to possess a strong intuition that allows them to channel huge amounts of corporate resources towards large problems and “be right” more often than not. And, making high quality decisions more often than not is really what separates the players from the rest. I’d like to argue, in fact, that strategic insight is more important than being a world class technologist as it relates to web start-ups. It has been said that Seattle could compete with the Silicon Valley more effectively if only we could increase the scope and sophistication of our technology education paradigm. Having a richer technology education environment seems as important to a budding tech scene as cocoa does to chocolate cake. It’s important! Technologists (e.g. developers/computer scientists) may well be the perfect “catalysts” for the next great online businesses.

    Having said that, I’m still apt to argue that past the seed stage, a broader ability to think reigns supreme. In order to be more “whole-brained” in their orientation, budding tech entrepreneurs should try to take from their schooling equal appreciation for the arts, creativity, and the skills of imagination and synthesis. It would seem that businesses become great when all cylinders are firing in uncanny sequence and with above average efficiency. This includes development, marketing, sales and support.

    I think intuition is sometimes confused by observers as “luck.” Two interesting, albeit relatively small, examples come to mind. First, was the widely publicized story of the 21 year old who started a site after a few hours of brainstorming called http://www.milliondollarhomepage.com The idea was simple and caught on like wildfire. Basically, he set up a site and intended to sell “pixel ads” until he had made a million dollars. The goal was achieved in months. The second company that came to mind as I wrote this was the now famous “AmIHotOrNot” site. These two sites, along with so many other similar examples (like Twitter, Pownce, digg and others) were conceived as either sudden flashes of inspiration or as a subconscious analysis of past experience. For example, it is highly unlikely that the first time Kevin Rose of Digg pulled up his favorite news site that he immediately noticed obvious problems. In fact, he probably noticed nothing at all. More likely, he spent years consuming information from existing websites and grew accustomed to clicking around to get to the information HE was most interested in. We do it with the giant Sunday edition newspaper each week. I grab the business section and my wife quickly goes for the editorial or entertainment portions.

    In the case of the milliondollarhome page, Alex had already amassed enough knowledge about the internet, online advertising and traffic building subconsciously that he had already begun to lay the foundation for a totally original online ad platform even before he realized the idea for the site. He just didn’t know that this consumption and storage of information would yield opportunity or he did not know how the opportunity would manifest itself.

    Intuition is like that. When good ideas bubble up, you’ll often be sitting in traffic or you’ll dream about it in your sleep. It may seem like an epiphany but it is really the outward manifestation of your brains ability to manage thousands of seemingly unrelated data points and reinterpret them according to what it thinks you really want. I really believe that embracing and extending the power of strategic intuition is perhaps the most important leverage you could exercise.

    There are a lot of reasons why investors often like to see technologists paired with a right brained marketing type. It isn’t that a developer can’t read marketing books and learn how to build a SWOT analysis or an MRD. Many developers who start companies do it because they are interested in learning more about business on the front lines. “Why do people buy products and how did they come to make the decision?” But from my observation, there is something else that a right brained marketer brings to the table beyond his mastery of the marketing basics. It is intuition. It is “presence of mind,” where you free your brain of all preconceptions about what problem you’re solving and what solution might work. Some people have certainly learned it on their own, without even knowing what exactly they’re doing. But like all other complex human actions, you are born without it and over time your brain learns it.

    Leveraging a highly cultivated strategic intuition ability is perhaps an entrepreneur’s best marketing strategy. When you embrace presence of mind you accept the incredible power of the mind and its ability to reach into its file cabinet to deliver the information you need to make good decisions in the face of ambiguity. Left brained people often struggle when challenged to find clarity in ambiguous situations just as right brained people often struggle to articulate a product spec with the right amount coherent detail which satisfactorily captures the importance, goals and non-goals of the envisioned feature.

    When I worked for RealNetworks in the 90’s, I had the opportunity to go to work in Europe during a time when there was no infrastructure yet in place. With all of Europe before us and little tactical direction to draw on, we had to make some critical decisions. “Where shall we focus on resources? On what verticals? In what countries?” I recall spending some preliminary time in the Nordic regions, hopping from Sweden to Finland to Denmark. Along the way, I wasn’t particularly trying to address the more strategic questions that related to an overall direction. I sensed opportunity based on a few brief emails and phone calls. Each subsequent meeting in the region confirmed the sense I had. I wasn’t rigid in my development of a sales plan. I didn’t believe I knew enough about Europe to be rigid. Over time, I began to develop some observations. The first was, “I like this area. It’s like Seattle in many ways with the water, climate and smaller urban topographies.” Further sub conscientious notations were made. “The people here seem particularly aggressive about digital media and its potential relative to some of the other regions I’ve visited.” “The people here seem to admire the possibility of an American business cooperation more so than in other regions.” “The people here seem to embrace the idea of risk in a manner that is more American and more along lines that I understand.” “The people here want their English to sound more American.”

    All of these things went into the mental file cabinet. What came out was a bit of a business plan to spend time and money marketing to nordic telecoms. What also came out was a good deal of revenue. Working with former executives from Microsoft, I can tell you that making decisions based on “gut instinct” isn’t always a popular explanation. If there aren’t bar charts and analyst reports to support your theories you’ll often find yourself chastised in this technology industry. Yet, at the end of the day what’s truly admirable is your ability to analyze a much wider range and depth of information than would be considered “normal” and infuse that with a “sixth sense” that cannot possibility be constrained to an excel spreadsheet. When things can’t be quantified in a spreadsheet, many people get nervous. That would be a mistake. This goes to the heart of the value of a right brained individual in an organization.

    Presence of mind means accepting that even the most minute details are used to craft valuable epiphanies. Accepting the epiphanies that often come as a “flash” of insight feels like an overwhelming discovery of opportunity. Your resolution to act on flashes of insight is obviously necessary. I can only speak for myself. I tend to develop packaging, presentation, marketing and PR strategies with intuition being an important pillar in the framing of the plan. “I just know” what will work best is an extremely important sense to be able to cultivate and very few people will want to state “I just know” with the right level of confidence. In the end though, “I’ll just do it” is the only manifestation of intuition that really matters.

  • comments

    2 Responses to “The value of “strategic intuition””

    1. Leo on February 19th, 2008

      Great article. Completely agree that intuition is often mistaken for luck. But I believe luck & timing are critical to the success of an idea. I think intuition is the ability to channel data between the left & right brain, make connections & synthesize brilliant insights. An epiphany, in the sense of a brilliant idea for a startup, is an almalgamation of experience, intuition and a catalyst. Using the Digg example, Kevin Rose had likely acquired all the knowledge & data he needed for the idea from years of experience surfing his favorite news sites. That isn’t to say others didn’t have the same experience, data & aptitude to come up with Digg or why Kevin wasn’t able to conceive of the idea a year earlier or a year later. This is where the catalyst plays a critical role (I don’t know Kevin personally so my comments are more generalized & not specific to Digg). Unlike intuition, the catalyst is the product of short term events & triggers - it might be a random converstaion, the right fix of caffeine or that perfect random thought while you were driving. In essence, the catalyst is often the result of that perfect storm. Anyways, those are just my unorganized thoughts on intuition & luck…

    2. Administrator on February 19th, 2008

      Great thoughts Leo! The “catalyst” is a great way to describe the actual trigger that allows your intuition to go to work. Being stuck in traffic could be the catalyst. Being frustrated with an existing service or product is a popular catalyst. Becoming interested in a topic or activity is also an important catalyst. I think people tend to generate epiphanies around things they like. Or things that cause them pain.

    Leave a Reply




    • Pressplane

      Pressplane is our latest internally developed concept. We raised our $1.7 million seed round on September 22 and are backed by Second Avenue Partners and a variety of tremendous angel investors. We aren't saying too much right now because we still have a lot of work to do but we thank Techcrunch, VentureBeat, Seattle Times and others for mentioning our latest effort!

    • CafePress

      Cafepress acquired Imagekind in July 2008. CafePress.com is an online marketplace that offers sellers complete e-commerce services to independently create and sell a wide variety of products, and offers buyers unique merchandise across virtually every topic.

    • Imagekind

      Curious Office started Imagekind in 2006 and it is the world's fastest-growing art site offering over 750,000 high-quality fine art images for sale. Imagekind gives consumers limitless options to purchase museum-quality framed and poster art from over 50,000 domestic and international emerging and established artists.

    • Shelfari

      Amazon.com acquired Shelfari in September 2008. Based in Seattle, Shelfari introduces readers to our global community of book lovers and encourages them to share their literary inclinations and passions with peers, friends, and total strangers

    • Fanzter

      Fanzter was founded in 2007 by veterans of leading media, technology, and consumer products companies and is headquartered in Collinsville, Connecticut. Their first product, Coolspotters.com, launched in May 2008.

    • Wishpot

      Wishpot is a free social shopping service that makes it easy to save and share interesting things you find in stores and online. Items are easily collected online or from stores and organized using simple online lists. Lists and items can be kept private or shared with others. You can collect and discover products you like, recommend your favorite stuff, share and explore gift suggestions or ask for opinions and advice.

    • FeedDigest

      FeedDigest is a parser, regenerator, and syndicator for, and of, RSS and Atom feeds originally built by Peter Cooper. In August 2007, Feed Digest was sold to its new owners, Informer Technologies, Inc., and in 2008 rebranded to Feed Informer.