Where are we on the bubble-meter?
This week I’ve heard multiple viewpoints on the outlook for 2008. Some are bearish - I suppose primarily fueled by the incessant launches of new “web 2.0″ start-ups with no apparent revenue models. Others still see a strong market for new ideas and a slew of big companies with deep pockets and high-minded motivations to spend money on tech teams seen to be innovating for the “next generation of the web.” Who is right? I think that nobody would dispute Adobe’s view that the network is ultimately the computer. Ok, actually the folks over at Sun get credit for that exact phrase but in any case, Microsoft surely isn’t happy that Google docs is being used by millions and there still isn’t a good web-based alternative to the mighty Word. In spite of this macro-movement I think that things could get a bit rough in the second half of 2008 for many web 2.0 companies that are hoping that advertising alone can sustain them. And building to flip was never a good idea anyway. No doubt Microsoft will buy a lot of companies over the next few years and those are the ones we’ll read about but there will be legions more that quietly go under. I always think there is an opportunity for good business ideas but I wouldn’t bank on pure market momentum to sustain an otherwise inadequate business plan. That worked out for a lot of companies over the last year (read: Sony’s buyout of Grouper) but I personally wouldn’t put “Google AdSense” in any new business plan. 
comments
Leave a Reply