There has been an interesting discussion going around about the web 2.0 hype and whether or not the latest ‘wishlist-bookmarking-socialnetwork-likeFlickr-but-better-than-myspace’ is really ever going to appeal to a mainstream audience. I think I know the answer. What rhymes with “2.0″? 2.No
Lately, we’ve looked at a lot of companies. We are small so we really want to find something special. Of course, things like valuation and other matters complicate these things but the fact remains that much of what I’ve seen lately has already been done ‘well enough’. I do think timing is everything but first movers have a big advantage. Consider 43things.com It would be silly to launch something called 44things.com with a goal that 1 more than 43 is just a little bit better. Or, thinking that launching a 43things in another language would be an interesting business idea. It isn’t.
I think that timing has a lot to do with these issues. At the time, 43things was a fairly innovative and interesting concept. I have absolutely no idea if its a good business but at least a lot of people play with it and thats a start. At the time, there really was nothing quite like Flickr. Building an online community around images was actually a fairly new idea. At least, nobody had done it well before. But, I have no idea why someone would necessarily think that a Flickr clone is a good business. I don’t have a crystal ball so it could all work out very well in the end but if you had to guess…
But things aren’t quite so simple. Context is also important. In the case of Zooomr, it was basically developed by 1 guy. Ok, so now a Flickr clone may not be so dumb after all. It might have been dumb for an angel to pump $500,000 into the idea beforehand but that doesn’t seem to be the case here. In the case of Newsvine, you could have argued that it wasn’t necessary because things like digg already existed. That’s true but on the other hand, Newsvine is playing to a very mainstream audience with a reasonably sensible mainstream product. Everyone gets the concept of news portals. Not everyone gets the idea of maintaining a list of life goals on the internet. I do think we’ll look back on a lot of web 2.0 wreckage. But here’s who I think will survive:
Those with real hardcore intellectual property (like JotSpot) are destined to survive.
Those who are paranoid about spending (FeedDigest.com) can survive.
Those who are good at marketing will survive (e.g. not geek-only shops).
Those with meaningful industry relationships at high levels can survive (by acquisition if necessary).
Those who were first in their category with an original concept that people have already validated should survive.
Oh, and I’d say that those who don’t confuse press on TechCrunch with business viability are a step ahead of the game.
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