Like many people, I’ve been following Ray Ozzie’s vision for Microsoft’s future because there really hasn’t been any other single person since Microsoft’s inception who have been held in such high esteem by both Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer. Without a doubt, other execs (Mundie) are heralded but Ozzie seems to have a responsibility to a) clarify the strengths and weaknesses that Microsoft has amassed over the years since its founding and b) apply that clarity against a new strategy where Microsoft stays as relevant as it ever was in the high tech community.
What I often read about his vision for Microsoft’s future is interesting. Perhaps its something Rob Glaser figured out earlier than even Billg. Advertising and subscriptions! Building better software is certainly important but Real eventually got out of the server business when it saw that it may be unwise to try to beat Microsoft at their own game. This is what Google did. Knowingly or unknowingly, they went where Microsoft wasn’t. They built the best ad network on the planet. Certainly it took smart developers. Speaking of which, it is now Google who gets the frequent mention about the high levels of “developer IQ” that permeate its ranks. “The best and brightest” they say. Debatable but the press these days loves saying such things.
Ozzie’s vision for the future is one of connectedness. Its about “webification”. None of that is surprising so the devil will be in the details. But consumers are going to benefit in a major way as the tech giants duke it out. Why? Because webifying everything requires billions and billions of dollars in infrastructure. Storage and bandwidth will continue to become a commodity because the world’s largest tech communities must build out cluster after cluster after cluster to support the apps of tomorrow. Ozzie knows this. And they’ll continue to invest in their own clustering technologies (which are still relatively new) so that they can get close to the home-grown server OS that currently drives all of Google. More storage, more bandwidth at less cost. In 10 years, it could be at no cost.
In 10 years, Microsoft will need to be making a significant percentage of their overall revenue from advertising in order to grow the business. That is a KEY growth market. Could it be possible that in 2016 you’ll get Excel for free as long as you agree to consume some ads from time to time? I think its entirely possible and maybe the notion is even necessary for Microsoft to stay as hot as they’ve been all these years.
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